Nuclear Plan for the NEM – Low Cost, Low Carbon, Reliable

Contents

Edition 4     15/12/2024

Nuclear Energy – vital for low cost, reliable, low emissions energy

On this previous page  Analysing Our Electrical Energy Options   we established that nuclear energy is our lowest cost, ultra low carbon option for the National Electricity Market –

On this page we outline a proposed timeline forthe roll out of a nuclear energy plan as shownin the following figure – A Nuclear energy Transition for the NEM.

The assumed NEM load in 2050 is 260 TWh/yr and in 2060 is 300 TWh/yr. This approximates to the AEMO Progressive Change Scenario and is based on anticipated population growth plus electrification of our motor vehicle fleet and increased industrial electrification.

Relevant parameters are:A proposed timeline

  1. Roll out is completed in 2060 with 30 GW of installed nuclear capacity using AP1000 large plants and i-SMR small plants. Other options such as APR1400 and BWRX 300 could also be used.
  2. Plants operate at 79% capacity factor in 2060.
  3. Installed wind is 18.4GW, Grid solar – 8.8 GW and roof top solar is 26.3GW. This is similar to current levels.
  4. Emissions intensity in 2060 on an LCA basis is 41 g CO2/kWh & cost to consumers is 38.5 c/kWh
  5. Emissions in 2050 are 48 gr CO2/kWh (LCA), 3 gr CO2/kWh Burned Fossil Fuel (BFF) or about 1/3rd that of the Step Change Scenario in the same year.
  6. The nuclear scenario removes all fossil fuel plants more quickly than both AEMO’s Step Change and Progressive Change Scenarios. Coal plants stop in 2049 while in the AEMO Progressive Change they remain in place at 1.5GW together with 15.5 GW of Open Cycle gas. Step Change still has 24.8 GW of gas in 2050.
  7. Gas consumption is minimised to prevent the construction of stranded assets and minimise electricity costs.

 

Description of the Plan

The nuclear energy plan evolves to achieve in 2050 and 2060  a mix of renewables and nuclear energy in the following capacities and proportions

  2050                      2060

Nuclear =                      21GW 60%            30GW 69%

Roof Top Solar =        26.3GW 13.2%      26.3GW 11.2%

Grid Solar =                 8.8GW  6.3%         8.8GW 4.3%

Wind =                        18.4GW  15.8%        18.4GW 11.1%

Hydro =                       7.05GW 5.2%          7.05GW 4.5%

Gas OCG=                    2.08GW 0.4%             0GW

Total Energy                  260TWh       300TWh

Emissions

BFF  g-CO2/kWh                3                 0

LCA g-CO2/kWh                48              41

A detailed breakdown of capacities and outputs for all generators and storage devices is contained in the following Excel File
RP4 text – Capacites and Energy outputs

Nuclear Integrated System Plan for Australia

In the following image we see the integration of nuclear energy operating as a baseload resources together with wind, solar hydro and energy storage.
The load in this case is for ten days in a June month with a wind drought from the 20th to 24th of the month

Model output, 10 days in June with wind drought

The nuclear generators meet the baseload demand while during the day utility and domestic solar paired with storage and hydro meets the peak demands

Three day detailed description

In this three day image note the black demand curve.

We see that:

  • Nuclear provides 69% base load
  • Solar in excess of demand goes to battery and pumped storage or is curtailed (orange colour)
  • Hydro up to 4.5% of demand provides remainder
  • Battery and pumped storage are operating – pink tones