Nuclear Plan for the NEM – Low Cost, Low Carbon, Reliable

Contents

Edition 5     21/02/2025

Nuclear Energy – vital for low cost, reliable, low emissions energy

On this previous page  Analysing Our Electrical Energy Options   we established that nuclear energy is our lowest cost, ultra low carbon option for the National Electricity Market –

On this page we outline a proposed timeline forthe roll out of a nuclear energy plan as shownin the following figure – A Nuclear energy Transition for the NEM.

The assumed NEM load in 2050 is 260 TWh/yr and in 2060 is 300 TWh/yr. This approximates to the AEMO Progressive Change Scenario and is based on anticipated population growth plus electrification of our motor vehicle fleet and increased industrial electrification.

Relevant parameters are:A proposed timeline

  1. Roll out is completed in 2060 with 30 GW of installed nuclear capacity using large plant such as the AP1000 or APR1000. The system would also contain small plants such as the BWRX 300 or i-SMR.
  2. Nuclear plants operate at 79% capacity factor in 2060.
  3. Installed wind is 18.4GW, Grid solar – 8.8 GW and roof top solar is 26.3GW. This is similar to current levels.
  4. Emissions intensity in 2060 on an LCA basis is 41 g CO2/kWh & cost to consumers is 35.5 c/kWh
  5. Emissions in 2050 are 48 gr CO2/kWh (LCA), 3 gr CO2/kWh Burned Fossil Fuel (BFF) or about 1/3rd that of the Step Change Scenario in the same year.
  6. The nuclear scenario removes all fossil fuel plants more quickly than both AEMO’s Step Change and Progressive Change Scenarios. Coal plants stop in 2049 while in the AEMO Progressive Change they remain in place at 1.5GW together with 15.5 GW of Open Cycle gas. Step Change still has 24.8 GW of gas in 2050.
  7. Gas consumption is minimised to prevent the construction of stranded assets and minimise electricity costs.

 

Description of the Plan

The nuclear energy plan evolves to achieve in 2050 and 2060  a mix of renewables and nuclear energy in the following capacities and proportions

  2050                        2060

Nuclear                       18GW  60%              30GW  69%

Roof Top Solar           26.3GW  13.2%        26.3GW  11.2%

Grid Solar                    8.8GW   6.3%           8.8GW    4.3%

Wind                            18.4GW  15.8%        18.4GW   11.1%

Hydro                            7.05GW 5.2%          7.05GW   4.5%

Gas OCG                      2.08GW  0.4%             0GW

Total Energy                  260TWh                   300TWh

Emissions

BFF  g-CO2/kWh                  3                            0

LCA g-CO2/kWh                48                           41

A detailed breakdown of capacities and outputs for all generators and storage devices is contained in the following Excel File
RP5 text – Capacites and Energy outputs

Nuclear Integrated System Plan for Australia

In the following image we see the integration of nuclear energy operating as a baseload resources together with wind, solar hydro and energy storage.
The load in this case is for ten days in a June month with a wind drought from the 20th to 24th of the month
Model output, 10 days in June with wind drought Model output, 10 days in June with wind drought[/caption]

The nuclear generators meet the baseload demand while during the day utility and domestic solar paired with storage and hydro meets the peak demands

Three day detailed description

In this three day image note the black demand curve.

We see that:

  • Nuclear provides 69% base load
  • Solar in excess of demand goes to battery and pumped storage or is curtailed (orange colour)
  • Hydro up to 4.5% of demand provides remainder
  • Battery and pumped storage are operating – pink tones