16 Nov Nuclear Energy is Essential to Meeting the National Electricity Law
Nuclear For Climate Australia
Submission to: House Select Committee on Nuclear Energy
Robert Parker 13th November, 2024
Nuclear Energy is Essential to Meeting the National Electricity Law
Our full report can be downloaded at this link:
Executive Summary
The key theme of this submission which is outlined in Sections 2 and 3 makes the case that only by using baseload nuclear energy, as our dominant form of electricity generation, can we provide ultra low carbon emissions while at the same time providing the lowest cost form of generation.
In Section 2 we provide the results of six electricity generation scenarios. These compare the NEM situation in 2022 with 100% “Renewables”, AEMO’s Step Change and Progressive Change scenarios and 50% and 75% nuclear generation options.
Full Life Cycle Analysis parameters are used to calculate the emissions of all scenarios. The two nuclear options have the lowest system costs and only the 75% nuclear is ultra-low carbon. The 100% Renewable, Step Change and Progressive Change fail to achieve either low or ultra-low emissions and therefore do not provide a solution that meets the requirements of the National Electricity Law. The results are shown in the following Figure 1 from the report.
Based on these results the National Electricity Objective as stated in the National Electricity Law (NEL) cannot be met unless a system based on high levels of nuclear energy is deployed. The NEL is in direct conflict with the laws preventing nuclear energy production contained in the ARPANS and EPBC Acts
This leads to the nuclear energy implementation timeline shown in the next image which is Figure 5 in the main report.
- The nuclear roll out is completed in 2060 with 30 GW of installed nuclear capacity using AP1000 large plants and i-SMR small plants. Other options such as APR1400 and BWRX 300 could also be used. The plants operate at 79% capacity factor in 2060.
- Installed wind is 18.4GW, Grid solar – 8.8 GW and roof top solar is 26.3GW. This is similar to current levels.
4. Emissions intensity in 2060 on an LCA basis is 41 g CO2/kWh & cost to consumers is 38.5 c/kWh. Emissions in 2050 are 48 gr CO2/kWh (LCA), 3 gr CO2/kWh Burned Fossil Fuel (BFF) or about 1/3rd that of the Step Change Scenario in the same year.
A bar chart showing fourteen plant locations together with plant types and precedent activities is included in Figure 6.
Also included is a comparison of the speed of this programme with the achievements in other nations – it’s a conservative and achievable target.
Thanks to Grant Chalmers for compiling this chart
In Section 4 the report details the huge materials consumption associated with a system dependent on wind and solar. The energy transition was intended to herald a more sustainable future however attempting to achieve this with wind and solar will only result in a massive increase in materials consumption. These materials will litter the landscape and their end of life retrieval is neither certain nor affordable.
A 100% “Renewable” system uses between 5.1 and 6.2 times more materials over an 80 year period than a nuclear based system. If the term “Renewable” is to mean anything at all it is best reserved for nuclear energy
Section 5 of the report deals with water demand and cooling of nuclear power plants. Research by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe finds that nuclear power plants use similar of slightly lower amounts of cooling water compared to coal plants. Data from EPRI in the US indicates similar levels or slightly more is used in nuclear plants. This report notes that in Australia siting of plants on the coast using sea water cooling in close proximity to large load centres is the ideal solution. Cooling using once through cycles from large cooling ponds as was used at Liddell power plant would also be environmental prudent.
Section 6 deals primarily with seismic risk. Australia is seismically stable being similar to the stability of eastern and central USA and far from unstable plate boundaries. Recent tremors in the Hunter region or in Gippsland or the 1989 Newcastle earthquake pose no safety risk to the safe operation of nuclear power plants.
It is entirely feasible and accords with precedent that the NEM can achieve true ultra low emissions electricity at a cost of about ½ that of a system reliant on wind, solar, hydro and gas backup. Such a nuclear energy system would contain 21 GW of nuclear energy plants built by 2050 and total 30GW by 2030. The plants would be located at 14 sites within Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.
No Comments